Campaign Watch: Handel Predicts Howard, No Merger Soon
One of the few surprises of this SAG election season has been the silence of the usually loqacious observers who pay particular attention to the guild, several of them industry lawyers. Jonathan Handel hasn’t blogged in more than a month, but he did appear on the KCRW program, The Business, where the host, Kim Masters, called the strife within SAG “almost comical,” and predicted a Howard victory.
Handel agrees that Howard will probably win the SAG Presidency, at least partly because the even-harder-line independent Seymour Cassel candidacy will take votes away from the annointed Membership First candidate, Anne Marie Johnson. He also predicts that Unite for Strength and the moderate coalition will continue to pick up seats.
On the subject of SAG-AFTRA merger, Handel says that’s “down the road, if ever… something that has to be pleasurable to management.” He says it will lead to “the re-run of a bad story,” with the AMPTP continuing to be able to play one union off against the other.
“down the road, if ever… something that has to be pleasurable to management.”
I am interpreting that in light of the following sentence (about playing the unions off against each other) as meaning that management will be happy to know that the merger won’t happen for a while. Is that how you took it too?
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Ed. Response – he clearly was saying that management has to be delighted that SAG and AFTRA will not be a single entity at the bargaining table, meaning that there is still an opportunity for the AMPTP to divide and conquer.
There’s great irony here. Merger opponents, though a minority, have been able to “save SAG” by helping preserve management’s ability to play the unions off against each other – thereby screwing SAG and AFTRA members out of money.
I hope he’s correct – that Howard wind, the moderates pick up more seats, and merger is down the road.
we all know that merger won’t happen overnight….but beginning with this election we can take steps – perhaps small ones – in the direction eventually leading to merger.
The first would be returning, fully, to Phase 1 – and that will take rebuilding AFTRA’s trust…and that begins with new leadership.
Yes, but they’ve at least saved SAG members from being in the same union as the dreaded broadcasters. You know, no-talent hacks like Walter Cronkite, Tom Brokaw, Barbara Walters, and especially no-account weathermen like Al Roker….
Didn’t anyone tell Handel he isn’t IN IT?
The return to Phase One is imperative, if what Jonathan Handel says comes to pass. A SAG-AFTRA merger is “down the road, if ever…”. So if actors are to have any leverage, the two unions must negotiate together. Basic cable was also in the Phase One agreement as written and those contract should be jointly negotiated too.
Hi -
Stewart & ed. – yes, what I meant was that management is presumably pleased that merger won’t happen for quite some time (if ever).
Re my quiescence – I’ve been busy with client work, and also with putting the blog to date in book form, which I’ll be publishing on Amazon in a few months as a paperback and maybe in Kindle format as well. The book will include an extensive (probably 50 pp.) bibliography of entertainment labor, which will not be available online, and which is taking a lot of work. Hence my blogging hiatus.
Thanks all.
Handel’s predictions are hardly the work of Jeanne Dixon, let alone Nostradamus.
It’s been pretty clear from the onset that Howard was the front runner and nothing has changed much. The air of desperation coming from the Membership First/SAGNOW camp grows more vivid with every passing day. Having to run on Anne Marie Johnson’s record, or lack of one, will probably prove too great a burden for the slate, too, and letting Erik serve as the spokesperson for the New York wing didn’t help the cause. “He’s shooting Anne Marie with a ray gun!” may be the highwater mark of campaign lunacy. The moderates’ campaign made no missteps, which, in the sorry state of SAG politics, is a refreshing change. That ought to be enough to ensure a victory.
And anyone who still thinks that merger will happen overnight if the moderates prevail is clearly naive. There’s a lot of hard work to do before formal discussions can even begin, and there’s a wealth of existing misinformation to dispel. I wouldn’t expect a formal referendum any time before 2014, and that’s at the earliest, and depends on a stable and sane SAG leadership between now and then. That ain’t a lock.
I think Fred’s a pessimist. I call late 2012 for merger if Howard wins and the non-M1st contingent increases its bloc on the national board. I don’t think Howard will “rush” merger, nor even can, but I do think given his campaign he has to give it a relatively high priority and begin putting the groundwork together relatively soon after taking over the reins.
SAG president is a two year gig. Howard has to stand again in 2011. He’s made merger a high priority of his campaign, and thus he has to show significant progress towards it before the 2011 campaign. . . which gives me a 2012 target. Maybe 2013. I do not think I’d want to be a U4S presidential candidate in 2013 if merger wasn’t pretty well tied up by then.
can someone explain what happens next. AMJ is currently the 1st vp. Will she retain that job when Howard wins? How is 1st vp determined? Who, then chairs the Hollywood meeting?
The 1st VP is elected by the Hollywood Board from among the Hollywood Board. There was a time not so long ago where MF dumped AMJ and put Kent Howard in that sea. However, if MF is still in control of the Hollywood Board, they will certainly select one of their own.
yeah, especially because there’s no market for real journalists in feature films. I mean, I’ve never seen a TV journalist or talk-show-host or game-show-host portray themselves in a fictional interview/report/broadcast in a feature film or on television or in a commercial.
It happens. Even Walter Cronkite played himself on Mary Tyler Moore.
Methinks you missed the implied /sarc tag on Michael’s post.
Wait – you mean that those Bill Kurtis reports on AT&T’s wireless Internet service are COMMERCIALS?!? I thought that was hard news coverage!!!1!11!
Highly likely.
editor… did my post on merger get lost?
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Ed. Response – Possibly. There’snothing trapped in the spam filter.