DVR, Friend or Foe?
The nets are calling it a plus, but is it? Time shifted viewing via TIVO and other DVRs is an increasing piece of the viewership pie.
The good news is, it means more people are watching a variety of shows, many of them dramas. The bad news is, it means prime time schedules are out the window, because people record and watch whenever, including up against other network shows.
The question is, how does this change the residual pattern? Obviously no one gets paid a residual from a DVR play.
Residuals are paid if a show is broadcast, regardless of who and how many or how few watch or if it is recorded in any way and watched a million times or never.
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Admin. Comment: That’s the whole point. If the show is broadcast once, but replayed an infinite number of times from a DVR…the ratings look better, but the actors don’t do any better.
That’s like saying no one gets paid a residual if my TV isn’t on. Why does the viewing technology matter?
I love DVR’s for a variety of reasons, not least of which is driving a stake through the heart of the evil, evil practice of counter-programming.
And on cable at least, a DVR makes it possible to pick up a new series that has become a hit midway thru the season and not be totally lost, bringing in new fans. “The Closer” marathons on TNT did that for me. What I wouldn’t have given for a marathon of early “The Mentalist” last year!
“Ratings” tally the number of times a recorded show is viewed? How?
Let’s not forget the value of add time goes down since people can Fast forward through commercials. The nets still think a money pit like hulu is a good idea. Bottom line? They call a sack of crap with a few sparklers a good idea and you want to take their word on dvr?
But the real point here is that while DVR viewings might technically add to the ratings, they will be hollow numbers to the advertisers. When people DVR programs they rarely, if at all, watch commercials. So advertisers most likely will keep looking at the live numbers as there main figures, until they figure out a way to put in DVR-proof ads. Since residual money is based on ad money, I would see no reason why actors would be able to argue they deserve more money because people are watching their recordings over and over, when they aren’t watching any of the ads.
I’ve had a DVR for years –they are less bad than the VCR for the talent. DVR harddrives offer a heck of a lot less permenant storage space than walls/basements full of VCR tapes.
We have two DVRs (that’s four tuners), and have had for years. We also have thousands of DVDs in this house bought from Amazon, etc, including complete runs of most of our favorite TV series (complete run DVD set of The West Wing shout-out for Kathy J. right here!).
Sorry, I can’t see the DVR as a greater threat than the VCR it replaced.
While you have a valid point about VHS…the DVR allows for easier programing to record the same program every time. So, while THE OFFICE is being recorded something else is being watched. BUT, to a degree, some of those recording are not watching something else – they’re doing something else. Geo is fairly right that the DVR is no bigger threat than the VHS…
The residual is based on the initial play over the net (when the broadcast is sent out), not on when the viewer watches it. It doesn’t matter how many people are watching it.
There are waivers in place (and have been for years) concerning reduced residuals for late-night programming when viewership is lower overall. DVR time-shifting could make these waivers somewhat problematic, because if the effect of the time-shifting is to significantly increase the viewing audience, the waivers are no longer appropriate.
VG
Just to be clear to anyone who doesn’t know whatever your DVR does is recorded and reported back to the company you lease it from. If you pause, rewind, watch over again, this information is all datamined. Tivo is excellent at this. It’s how they profile you to offer you shows that they think you will like.I hope this answers Tom’s question as to how ratings are tallied.
What I find interesting is if you watch a program and leave during the commercial to get a snack, but the show continues to play, that commercials is considered viewed. If you fast forward through the commercial then it is NOT considered viewed. Which is weird because when you fast forward there is SOME (possibly incremental, but definite) visual intake of information. And yet, as you FF past the branding that has become so recognizable (say, the Verizon guy, for instance) the advertisers don’t count this as viewed.
Actually, they would love to. It’s the networks that don’t.
It’s backwards.
Actually, I would submit that Geo is wrong. The DVR is a much bigger player. It’s prepping the public in a big way to consider programming as nothing more than data.
Netflix is about to make a big push for digital on demand. Rendering the need to buy DVDs superfluous. Why buy when your subscription allows you to call the movie up at a moment’s notice? When that happens, and it will, over your television, and it will, the networks are going to see a huge profit center disappear.
The DVR has crippled the advertising industry, btw. Not just the economy. And, in the end, the viewer will suffer. If all scripted television has to rely on a subscription program then you’ll see less and less shows and less and less quality as well.
Did you know that Tivo had sued Echostar for copyright infringement? Did you also know that they won that case to the tune of 400 million dollars?
The company that developed the device that changed the way people watch television forever, on the AUDIENCE’S terms, with no shackles for advertising (which is a BILLION plus dollar business for actors in BOTH unions) now has almost half a billion dollars coming to it for development. It’s a big deal. It’s a game changer. (and for the reps out there, like agents and lawyers and managers, that’s 100 MILLION DOLLARS of lost commissions if that goes away)
If you think it’s just a little thing no more interesting or effective than the VCR, you are out of your mind.
Allen, why lay Netflix on demand at the feet of the DVR? Cable companies have been doing PPV for many years before DVRs were ever dreamed of. All Netflix will do from a technical perspective is unshackle you from your cable company.
If the content licensing companies are making bad deals, that’s a problem alright, but it isn’t the DVR’s fault.
I will say that the DVR companies have not acted ethically (so far as I can tell) in regards the skip forward capability they aren’t supposed to have in their DVRs. Both Comcast and DirecTV don’t have a 30-second skip to get past commercials (tho DirecTV has a 30 second “slip” where you still see the content as it fast-forwards by). Except anyone who isn’t a total technical goober can easily find the “secret” method for programming both Comcast and DirecTV’s DVR remotes to enable the “hidden” (kaff!) 30-second skip capability that they have in those devices.
Advertising is a major profit center for cable companies too. They are working hard on making advertising more time-relevant for PPV/subscription content. Do a google on “Project Canoe”.
I don’t have a lot of hope for the broadcast networks in the longterm, it is true. Tho it would help if the contracts didn’t disadvantage them so. In my opinion, the guilds need to quit creating (or allowing the producers to create) artificial incentives and disincentives for content to appear over here instead of over there. Why are such a large percentage of the good new scripted shows on cable channels these days? Why was Battlestar Galactica never shown on NBC (if not the first year, at least by the second year?).
Count me as one who has a DVR but never uses it. I like to flip thru channels and pause and watch a few minutes and move on. But in my town, times are hard and lots of folks with a digital tv are dumping their cable or satellite and putting up a digital antenna, you can get a dozen stations in HiDef for free and instead of Netflix we have NeighborFlix – which used to be called borrowing.
Big big changes are on the way from the strapped consumers of America. I just dumped my storage unit, gave most of stuff away and dumped most of the rest. Lots of empty units at my old storage, lots of shiny new antennas on houses. Cable execs should be developing a Plan B, I think local tv stations and networks aren’t dead yet.
Battlestar WAS shown on NBC in the second year. Precisely because it had done so well on SciFi. It didn’t pull numbers the network needed and so was pulled.
PPV vs a subscription rate are apples and oranges. Netflix didn’t take a bite out of that revenue as much as the movie rental world. This Wired article was, I think, the most interesting take: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-10/ff_netflix which backs up your statement about unshackling from the cable company. (Of course, the cable companies profits are what partially help them to create shows like Mad Men. So, that could go away.)
Project Canoe is interesting. But Tivo having won that case, well, what does that mean for upcoming software changes to illegal products like echostar’s DVR?
Tom Rogers(CEO of Tivo, ex-creator of CNBC) was addressing advertisers last fall and one of his ideas was to make it so when a person deletes a program they MUST watch a commercial. Hulu has figured this out as well.
All I’m saying is that the advertisers I know are frightened by the impact of the DVR. When PPV and VCR came out there was no rejiggering of the rating system. Now we have C3. You know C3, right? That’s where they accept the viewing of a commercial but only up to 3 days from the original air date. Time shifting is a big deal. It’s not a VCR.
“I hope this answers Tom’s question as to how ratings are tallied.”
Actually it doesn’t.
My understanding has always been that “ratings” are done by sampling viewers. Does Nielsen (or whomever) NOT do it that way anymore? You think Tivo (or whomever) shares their data with the people who produce “ratings?”
I’m not trying to be argumentative here – I’d really like to know if – and if so, how – DVRs affect official ratings.
I don’t have the answer on that, Tom. Its a great question and I will look into it. I think, with Tivo, we are in a new realm of data gathering. Not that Tivo would share the data with everyone but I’m sure they share some of it in some way.
Some of my friends in advertising told me what they were expecting from Tivo years ago. That the profiling would not be limited to shows but the data would be used to determine the correct commercial for the correct demographic. Then THOSE spots would be slotted in to shows to play for the specific viewer. This hasn’t come to pass but it’s not too far off or far off the wagon to expect.
A DVR’s service is proprietary, yes. But, not exclusive. There’s no reason to believe that they aren’t sharing the data with the networks and advertisers. The C3 rating is official. It’s Nielsen. And that data comes from the DRV providers. Yes, we are still talking about sampling, I believe, but that’s because, in the past, how could you monitor what someone was watching? You HAD to install the boxes and gather that intel.
Well, we are all intel gatherers now. In fact, the data being harvested by DVRS is more accurate for those households than just sampling.
As more and more people use this device, the viewing habits of the American people will become more and more pinpoint accurate.
What’s important to me is finding a way for our unions to be on top of the data and involved in whatever the revenue stream may be. It’s time to invite Mr. Rogers, Google and whoever else in on this cutting edge of new technology to sit down with us and keep us in the loop.
I invite you to be a part of that process, its going to be exciting.
The TNR ratings service uses data relayed back from set-top boxes to compile viewership information.
I had a discussion with some Nielsen guys earlier this year about how things are measured. We all acknowledged that one problem with set-top boxes is that there is no way to know if anyone is in the room watching or if the set itself is even turned on. In my household there are four rooms with set-top boxes, but my wife and I at most can be watching separate shows in two rooms. The other rooms may have the set-top box set to the same channel (whatever was last used) for an extended period of time.
The Neilsen guy says that there is probably some routine that disregards the data unless there is recent evidence of channel-changing or other activity on that box.
In any case, while I don’t know whether TiVo is sharing info for ratings purposes, the set-top box example for TNR shows that this kind of approach is being used elsewhere.
VG
Thanks, Allen.
I agree that the guild must be on the cutting edge of this.