2010 Digital Ad Revenues to Surpass Print, Local Television and Radio Continue Decline
Two interesting items found in Mediapost today, both on where the money is going.
For the first time digital advertising revenue is expected to exceed print advertising revenue. Mediapost quotes a study by Outsell:
Altogether, U.S. advertisers and marketers plan to spend $368 billion in 2010, Outsell found — up 1.2% from about $364 billion in 2009. Within the 2010 figure, 32.5% ($119.6 billion) will go to digital, versus 30.3% ($111.5 billion) for print.
The local media mess seems to be still getting worse. The only good news is that the next three years are expected to get better, though mostly because of continuing growth in digital revenue:
Media forecaster BIA/Kelsey says local advertising revenues for television and radio will reach $34.3 billion in 2014, up from $29.9 billion in 2009. That’s a 2.8% compound annual growth rate. Digital revenues for local TV and radio are expected to soar nearly 18% over the same period.
Yeah, I don’t know that I believe that. There’s a check point next week at a media conference in NYC where there should be some mid-1Q reporting from some of those in the best position to say, like Gannett.
The general consensus in the tech/media/advertising world is that digital will pass print, but that the primary reason isn’t the growth of digital, it’s the death of print. If you mash the numbers in the press release, digital wouldn’t be passing print in 2010 if the print revenue had stayed the same from 2009.
In other words, it’s easier to pass someone when they’re backing up.
Looking again, that was kind of cryptic reply on my part. I meant relative to the articles report of TV revenue falling 6.5% in 2010 vs 2009.
Right now I’m expecting something more like mid single digit increases, driven in the first 1/2 of the year by easy year over year comparisons and in the second 1/2 of the year by political ad spending.
The November 2010 elections will help with broadcast revenue, but except for voiceover people, probably won’t do much for SAG or AFTRA.
VG
Except so much as healthier broadcast is good for SAG or AFTRA, of course. Which is equally true for broadcast finally dipping into retrans fees in a big way (see the cablevision/ABC staredown) –some of the cablecos are complaining to the FCC about that now. Broadcast is shifting to a hybrid broadcast/cable business model (monthly access fees) more and more, which has the potential to significantly lengthen the lifespan of broadcast (and its associated contracts with the creative guilds).